Ad spending down. Just don`t mention the Internet.
Front page of this morning’s subscription-only Australian Financial Review, Business scales back ad spend (Neil Shoebridge): Sluggish consumer spending, erratic business confidence, higher petrol prices and the fear of interest rate increases will squeeze the $12 billion media sector next year as marketers rein in their advertising spending plans.
The news isn’t all dim however.
MediaCom Chief Executive Anne Parsons predicts total ad spending will rise 3 to 4 percent next year, with the newspaper and free-to-air TV sectors seeing growth of 2 to 3 per cent.
“Compared to pay TV and the internet, they are not happening things,” she says.
“Newspapers and free-to-air TV will be used for ‘need-to-do’ advertising by marketers in categories such as retail, financial services and automotive.”
“The more interesting advertising will be done in other media sectors, particularly online.”
Parsons says big marketers are steadily moving money away from free-to-air TV and newspapers. “Clients consistently want to talk about other media,” she says.
The most useful assessment of the situation comes from an AFR, Merrill Lynch forecast, reproduced below:
|
How Merrill Lynch sees the 2006 ad market
| ||
|
Medium |
Ad revenue $m
|
Growth % |
|
Free-to-air TV |
3,423 |
+ 3.0% |
|
Radio |
932 |
+ 3.3% |
|
Newspapers |
3,956 |
+ 3.0% |
|
Magazines |
1,010 |
+ 4.5% |
|
Outdoor |
360 |
+ 3.5% |
|
Internet |
793 |
+ 35.0% |
|
Pay TV |
222 |
+ 32.0% |
|
Total |
10,694 |
+ 5.5% |
I note that the gap between Internet and Radio is now only $140m.
